Vancouver to Seattle in an hour?
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PostPost subject: Re: Vancouver to Seattle in an hour?    Posted: 06.01.2018 13:48

Ultra High-Speed Ground Transportation Study
Prepared for
Washington State Department of Transportation
December 2017

5.4.4 CONNECT Results Summary


This section provides a summary of the key CONNECT results and categorizes the results by regional geography/market, technological differentiation, and intercity travel mode share.

Regional Geography/Market Results

1. Given the limitations of the CONNECT model as well as the current trend lines, Seattle to Portland is critical to any future UHSGT alternatives. This high-level coarse model only predicts based on current trends and cannot accurately anticipate future significant changes in the economic relationships between Cascadia region markets. A more detailed ridership and revenue study is needed at a more precise level then that provided by CONNECT.

2. The CONNECT model, for all rail service levels (less than 79 mph [127 km/h], greater than 250 mph [402 km/h]), indicates that 12 round trips are the “sweet spot” for rail services before there are diminishing returns. The more detailed analysis identified in #1, is critical to determine the potential market. Such a study will also identify the impact of commuter and shorter intercity trips less than 50 miles (80 km), now excluded from the modeling.

3. Given that the current model indicates a market for 12 round trips, short of a major dedicated corridor investment, consideration should be given to analyzing the costs of additional service increases on the current corridor (Amtrak Cascades and Sound Transit commuter) as an interim step to build demand and the potential market share before embarking on building that new corridor.

4. While the East-West corridor to Spokane could add a 15 to 25 percent increase in network impact ridership, it requires initial subsidies to be viable.

5. The higher speed of maglev does not seem to significantly change the ridership/revenue equation. More detailed study is needed.

6. Given the very high capital costs for the Portland to Sacramento market as a Core Express dedicated corridor, and therefore a lessened opportunity to cover even O&M costs, it is recommended to discontinue future consideration in the 2035-2055 time-frame for this connecting corridor extension at the time of this study. California has not included a high-speed rail extension from Sacramento to Oregon in its recently released draft 2018 State Rail Plan. The California State Rail Plan does include references to potential high-speed rail connections to Las Vegas and Phoenix in the 2040 vision.

Technology Differentiation Results

7. In 2035, maglev seems to cover O&M costs in most alternatives; a small subsidy may be needed in the earlier period (2035) for HSR. By 2055, all corridor technological alternatives cover O&M and assist in capital carrying costs to various degrees.

8. While maglev and HSR have different capital and operating benefits over time, the CONNECT tool does not provide sufficient data to choose a specific technology at this time. More detailed technical analysis is required to select among the feasible technologies being examined.

Gruß jok
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Vancouver to Seattle in an hour? jok 06.01.2018 13:37
      Re: Vancouver to Seattle in an hour? jok 06.01.2018 13:48
            Re: Vancouver to Seattle in an hour? PiT 13.03.2018 11:32
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